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Author: Subject: Wrestlemania 28 Odds are Out
MbahABako
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posted on 3-26-2012 at 03:53 PM Edit Post Reply With Quote
Wrestlemania 28 Odds are Out

It's the yearly tradition brought to you by OO's own resident degenerate gambler, MbahABako. Here's the odds for this year's Wrestlemania card -- they've broken it up on 5dimes to wagers that are (a) graded on the initial announcement at ringside and (b) graded at the end of the night. I think this was done to avoid the situation last year where Cena originally was announced the winner, the match was restarted, and Miz was the victor. That caused a lot of confusion for the books. I will mark them as "initial" and "end" to differentiate where there is a difference in the odds.

Here they are:

Initial:

Rock +125
Cena -165

End:

Rock +220
Cena -300



Initial:

HHH +400
Taker -600

End:

HHH +500
Taker -900



CM Punk +100
Jericho -140


Daniel Bryan +180
Sheamus -260


Cody Rhodes -125
Big Show -115


Randy Orton -530
Kane +350



Initial:

Team Teddy +105
Team Johnny -145

End:

Team Teddy: +165
Team Johnny: -220



Maria/Kelly -215
Beth/Eve +165


My initial thoughts:


1. I have no idea really why they split up the Rock/Cena odds -- do they have inside information? is Tony scared of a repeat of last year? Dogs haven't hit that much over the past 3 years of my involvement of Wrestlemania betting although there has been one here and there. Not only that, but if Tony has inside info or is scared of a scenario like last year, why is Cena favored on both legs? If they knew that it was going to be a Rock win that changes to Cena by the end of the show or vice versa, wouldn't the odds suggest that? Either way, I think that this match should end with Cena winning, although I do get worried about these claims that the two are going to do a best of 3 series because of Miz interference chicanery which would set up a re-match of some kind. Not a ton of value here on either side IMO, although I'd lean Rocky at the plus juice just because a Rock win would help set up the rematch or some sort of triple threat at a future PPV with Miz. You have to imagine at Mania that the fans will boo Cena out of the building because (a) they are in Rock's hometown and (b) the people who travel from out of town to go to Wrestlemania are not in the wheelhouse of Cena fans.

2. Taker at -600 is a lock, and I don't use that phrase lightly. No way HHH (or anyone) beats the streak. I'd be adding in Taker to every single parlay I made.

3. I think there is extreme value in Punk at -130, I don't believe Jericho came back with the promise of a title run and quite frankly, I think he recognizes talent and wanted to put over a guy like Punk to help cement his stardom. Jericho is too old and wise in the ways of the business to be selfish and demand a title run in exchange for returning. Plus with Fozzy's touring schedule in the summer, I think Punk should be much closer to a -250 favorite.

4. Sheamus should be the favorite here but I wouldn't be shocked to see Bryan retain, I think he has been fantastic in his heel persona and his abusive relationship with AJ is really only starting to develop. The best way I think for his star to continue to rise is for him to beat Sheamus at Mania, although you wonder if they would give Sheamus the monster Rumble win and subsequent push if they didn't want to put the title on him. Add in the history of favorites cashing at Mania and the love that Sheamus has from the company as one of the new stars, and I think Sheamus probably picks up the win (although it is not what I would do from a booking perspective).

5. Rhodes and Big Show is very interesting. Rhodes has gotten the better of Show throughout the build to this I feel and logic would dictate that Show should put Rhodes over, but the one-sided nature of this makes me wonder if Show won't finally get his "Wrestlemania moment" by beating down Rhodes. Rhodes did get a big win last year at Mania against Mysterio so I could see the company thinking that it is time for him to give a win back to a veteran in Big Show, especially when the whole story line is based around the fact that Big Show has had nothing but blunders at past Manias.




For the record, I've made money betting this event for the last 3 years in a row, hoping to make it four but curious as to what you guys think. Where is there value? What will WWE do?

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Cherokee Jack
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posted on 3-26-2012 at 06:29 PM Edit Post Reply With Quote
I also remember from last year the King/Cole match, where King won via submission, then the Anonymous GM buzzed in and reversed the decision, declaring Cole the winner. Cole was going off at some ridiculously long odds (EDIT: Just went back and checked, Cole was at +2000), enough to make us wonder if someone on the inside at WWE made that call to cash in.

Punk at +100? I love that one. I actually think Jericho could very well take the belt from Punk at some point, but I don't think it happens at Mania.

I also think Bryan +180 is a solid play. Sheamus has all the momentum, but it's almost becoming too obvious that Sheamus will win, which makes me think it very possible that Bryan finds a way to retain.

Taker is a lock, 99% likely for initial, and a 100% lock for end. However, the odds are too long for me to be able to bet enough to make a decent profit.

Maria/Kelly however, looks like another good play. At -215 it's an affordable bet to make, and celebrities NEVER lose at Wrestlemania. Just off the top of my head, I'm trying to think of a non-wrestler celebrity who had a match and didn't win, and I can't come up with any. From Mr. T, to Lawrence Taylor, to Big Show's encounters with Akebono and Floyd Mayweather, to Snooki last year, they want that clip that the entertainment shows can play of the celeb standing victoriously in the ring. Not a sure thing on the level of Taker, but Maria/Kelly feels like a really safe bet.

[Edited on 3-26-2012 by Cherokee Jack]





I'm Cherokee Jack!

2010 OO Fantasy Football Champion!

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theflammablemanimal
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posted on 3-26-2012 at 11:24 PM Edit Post Reply With Quote
I expected Sheamus and Team Johnny to be much higher favorites.





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Paddlefoot
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posted on 3-26-2012 at 11:37 PM Edit Post Reply With Quote
What's the over-under on "it's all gonna suck"?

Just kidding. I might go out for a flat of beer, a pizza, and order this year it just for Rock/Cena alone.





You are a bastard. A daughter-fucking wildling bastard.

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