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Author: Subject: The 2012 Election
williamssl
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posted on 5-13-2011 at 10:07 PM Edit Post Reply With Quote
The 2012 Election

Getting this started now for all things election, fueled by a longtime board "favorite" officially throwing his name in the hat today:








Don't Mess With Texas

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BBMN
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posted on 5-14-2011 at 02:01 AM Edit Post Reply With Quote
I like Ron in a way. He's seems like the Right's version of Dennis Kucinich... He's tiny, funny looking, and he scares the shit out of more moderate people in his own party. And I like how he says stuff that's really controversial, yet not as it's actually pretty popular in some circles...

Stewart fires on all cylinders here....




And I'm not sure if this image was photoshopped or not. Wouldn't surprise me either way.

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doctorb
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posted on 5-14-2011 at 04:25 PM Edit Post Reply With Quote
That was a photoshop, but I laughed at it.

What we (republicans) needed was for someone to emerge form 08 as the guy we should have for. McCain blew it, gee I sure wish _____ had won the primary. Then that guy could have been the man to beat for the last 3 years. (Of course while McCain ran a crappy campaign it was Leiman brothers that really did him in.)

But that was split between Paul, Romney, and Huckabee so now we're still in the spot of having a ton of decent choices but no real front runner to try to unite behind. And I'm not sure any of them are strong enough now or will be in the next year to beat Obama.

Unless Hillary runs against him. If she does that, he's toast.

I personally think Daniels or Paulenty are the two best choices right now. Though huckabee has some strong support from independents and even democrats that are more socially conservative, he could have a good shot if he were to take an early, strong lead. The reason I like Daniels is that I think Obama's biggest liability is his record. He's never run on a record before and now he has one. Someone like Cain or Trump can't go toe to toe with him on ideas and results because they're running solely on ideas, like he did in 08. But Paulenty and Daniels are pretty boring and I don't know if they can win the primary.

It's sad that the republicans are almost certainly going to blow a really good opportunity.





The "B" is for Bargain!

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denverpunk
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posted on 5-14-2011 at 05:51 PM Edit Post Reply With Quote
quote:
Originally posted by doctorb

Unless Hillary runs against him. If she does that, he's toast.


But she already tried that and lost. I agree there's a lot vulnerability with Obama, even after killing Bin Laden, but Hillary is still wooden and stiff just like she was in 2008. If she ran, I think it'd play out in about the same way it did before.

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doctorb
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posted on 5-14-2011 at 06:11 PM Edit Post Reply With Quote
Historically, if the sitting president gets a primary challenge he wins it but then loses the general election.

Which is why I'm sure no one will challenge him. They'd forever lose the chance to run again because of so much bad blood over playing spoiler for Obama. Hillary will wait 4 more years because there's no way Biden will successfully run then.





The "B" is for Bargain!

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chretienbabacool
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posted on 5-14-2011 at 09:56 PM Edit Post Reply With Quote
Of course with Huckabee, this is who his religious adviser was:

http://motherjones.com/politics/2011/05/mike-huckabee-janet-porter-soviet-spy

Complete nutjob and so is Huckabee. As far as Ron Paul goes, libertarians are some of the worst people in the world to me. They act like we all live in bubbles and none of our actions affect anyone else and thus we should be able to do whatever we want without government interference, which is a patently bullshit view. If I went over and shot my neighbor, no one would deny I should go to jail yet somehow if we kill people in the guise of capitalism it's just the cost of doing business and people like Ron Paul are all for it. Awful, awful people are libertarians.

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Paddlefoot
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posted on 5-14-2011 at 10:19 PM Edit Post Reply With Quote
Yeah, Huckabee's the bright-eyed and friendly face of Christian fundamentalism, but behind it all it's the same old kooky right-wing bullshit routine.





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denverpunk
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posted on 5-15-2011 at 04:21 AM Edit Post Reply With Quote
Well, ol' Huck just announced that he's not running.

http://news.yahoo.com/s/ap/us_huckabee2012

------------------------------------------------------------------------------

LITTLE ROCK, Ark. Former Arkansas Gov. Mike Huckabee said Saturday he won't seek the Republican presidential nomination, choosing to stick with a lucrative career as a television and radio personality over a race that would be both costly and caustic.

"All the factors say go, but my heart says no," Huckabee, the winner of the 2008 Iowa caucuses, said on his Fox News Channel show.

Huckabee's decision further muddies the GOP field as the Republican Party seeks a challenger for President Barack Obama.

A prominent social conservative, he ranks high in national popularity polls. And, had he run, he would have been a serious contender for the party nod with instant support among Christian evangelicals who dominate the Iowa caucuses and the early South Carolina primary.

Huckabee said the past few months have been times of deep personal reflection, even as he noted that polls put him "at or near the top" among likely Republican candidates.

[ For complete coverage of politics and policy, go to Yahoo! Politics ]


He said money wasn't a problem and that his family was supportive of a run. He said he was confident of competing even in the Northeast and among less conservative members of the party.

But his heart wasn't in it.

"My answer is clear and firm," Huckabee said. "I will not seek the Republican nomination for president this year. I'm going to continue gladly doing what I do."

Even before the show, Huckabee's advisers said he was unlikely to run. Yet there was an element of doubt, as he apparently left even his closest advisers in the dark as to which way he would decide.

Huckabee only added to the tease with a series of interviews on Fox previewing his announcement, and with an email to advisers Friday night that said things were likely to get "crazier" after he revealed his plans.

Huckabee had told advisers he committed to Fox to reveal his decision first on his show. But the channel's Executive Vice President of Legal and Business Affairs Dianne Brandi said there was nothing in his contract prohibiting him from making his announcement wherever he chose.

By opting out of a bid, Huckabee leaves his network of support up for grabs in the critical early nominating states of Iowa and South Carolina where cultural conservatives hold much power in choosing the nominee.

Huckabee painted the decision as a spiritual one.

"Only when I was alone, in quiet and reflective moments, did I have not only clarity but an inexplicable inner peace," he said.

"Being president is a job that takes one to the limit of his or her human capacity. For me, to do it apart from the inner confidence that I was undertaking it without God's full blessing is simply unthinkable."

Huckabee, who has been out of public office since 2007, said he will continue helping others in campaigns for Congress, governorships and other positions who adhere to his ideals of commonsense, constitutional governance and civil discourse.

Had he chosen to run, Huckabee would have been forced to give up the lucrative media career he's enjoyed since his unsuccessful presidential bid four years ago. In addition to his TV show, Huckabee hosts a nationally syndicated radio program, gives paid speeches around the country and has even launched a series of animated videos for children on American history.

The talk show is the centerpiece of Huckabee's enterprises, which have made the one-time Baptist preacher from Hope, Ark., and 10-year governor a wealthy man with a $2.2 million beachfront home under construction in Florida. Huckabee, 55, and his wife moved their residency and voter registration to the state last year.

Making the announcement at the end of his hour-long program offered a glimpse of the celebrity life Huckabee wasn't willing to give up. He interviewed Mario Lopez of "Saved by the Bell" fame and jammed with Ted Nugent playing "Cat Scratch Fever" on the show.

His announcement was even followed up by a taped message from Donald Trump, the real estate mogul turned reality television star who has also been mulling a presidential run.

"Your ratings are terrific. You're making a lot of money. You're building a beautiful house in Florida. Good luck," Trump said. Others in the GOP race or considering it, like Newt Gingrich, Tim Pawlenty and Jon Huntsman, sent out statements praising Huckabee.

Advisers said Huckabee could have entered the race with a frontrunner status he didn't have as a former governor fresh out of office in 2008. But another Huckabee run would have brought renewed scrutiny over his support of some tax increases in Arkansas and his record on clemency including commuting the sentence of a man who later killed four Seattle-area police officers.

Huckabee is the latest Republican to opt out of running for the chance to challenge President Barack Obama in the general election. Several other Republicans hopefuls have bowed out as well, including Haley Barbour, Mike Pence and John Thune.

That raises questions about whether some GOP aspirants view Obama as too tough to beat.

It's unclear whether Huckabee's decision closes the door ultimately on his political future. While many say he still has a bright future with his personal media empire, turning that stardom into another presidential run in 2016 would be difficult

Ed Rollins, who chaired Huckabee's 2008 campaign and had been talking with fundraisers about a 2012 Huckabee bid, said it would be difficult to find another opportunity like this.

"It was all there for him," Rollins said.

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chretienbabacool
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posted on 5-15-2011 at 05:20 AM Edit Post Reply With Quote
quote:
and has even launched a series of animated videos for children on American history.


Oh god there is truly no hope for our children

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OOMike
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posted on 5-16-2011 at 02:23 PM Edit Post Reply With Quote
Here's a theory I have been working on the past few weeks...

What if Obama drops Biden (do not need his help with foreign policy, Biden's mouth running off) and names Hillary as VP. Hillary takes the job with the understanding that she will have the full support of the party in 2016 when she goes for the big chair.

I don't think it will hurt Obama too much to switch VP's (Biden can claim health issues and resign) but I think it will give him a boost with female voters and money raising for the election.

Opinions?





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Chris Is Good517
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posted on 5-16-2011 at 02:44 PM Edit Post Reply With Quote
Is there a precedent for that? I mean, I'm all for it but I can't imagine the GOP just standing by and letting something like that happen.





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atothej
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posted on 5-16-2011 at 03:11 PM Edit Post Reply With Quote
quote:
Originally posted by Chris Is Good517
Is there a precedent for that? I mean, I'm all for it but I can't imagine the GOP just standing by and letting something like that happen.


It's rare in the modern era, but it's certainly not unprecedented. The last president to switch VP was Nixon, but that was due to Agnew's resignation. Before that, FDR had multiple VPs. List of VPs is here.

The thought about switching between Clinton and Biden has been floated a few times, but generally brushed off quickly by the administration. Basically, the thought process stems from Biden's expertise in foreign affairs (he allegedly sought the Sec. State position before being offered VP) and Clinton's ambition for the main job when Obama's done. I don't think that it would be that big a deal if sold the right way and I don't see why the GOP would get any more mileage out of that move than their usual opposition to anything Obama does.





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C.MontgomeryPunk
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posted on 5-16-2011 at 05:50 PM Edit Post Reply With Quote
Obama won't need that sort of gimmickry and I doubt he'd sell out Biden like that either.

As for female boost - why would they vote against Obama now when they voted for him in 2008 - what has the GOP done to win their vote (pretending they vote in a block)?

I think Hillary on the ticket would probably hurt in that the GOP would see what the Demc sould have planned. Also it would be seen as President Obama picking very early sides in the 2016 Primary and could alienate other 2016 Dem hopefuls.

As for fundraising potential, the prevailing belief is that President Obama will be the first billion dollar fundraiser this cycle. He spend $750M in 2008 and had money left over to give every full time staffer a months pay extra. Not to mention the GOP could have a pretty long and hardfought primary season using their primary money to attack each other while PResident Obama would use his primary money to build campaign/GOTV infrastructure.

[Edited on 5-16-2011 by C.MontgomeryPunk]





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Chris Is Good517
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posted on 5-16-2011 at 06:47 PM Edit Post Reply With Quote
quote:
Originally posted by C.MontgomeryPunk
Not to mention the GOP could have a pretty long and hardfought primary season using their primary money to attack each other while PResident Obama would use his primary money to build campaign/GOTV infrastructure.



Objectively, I think the last thing the potential GOP candidates need right now is to be attacked by each other. The top people in the running right now look sloppy, disorganized, and unqualified already without cannibalizing each other. Again, I'm trying to be objective and I'm no poly science major but based on the name power the Republicans have right now there really looks like there's no fucking way they can win this election. They might as well all rally behind one candidate (Romney? Newt? Hell, since it's essentially a throwaway election, maybe Bachmann with the hopes that she'll lure in some moderate women?), take the loss, and start building to challenge Hillary in 2016 because I'd bet dollars to donuts that that's the inevitable outcome anyway. Why waste time and resources on senseless in-fighting when it could be spent investing in the long-term? Oh, wait... I just answered my own question. Conservatives.





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doctorb
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posted on 5-16-2011 at 07:29 PM Edit Post Reply With Quote
I think it's a throw away election because they won't rally behind one candidate. If Newt or Daniels or Romney or 2 or 3 others (Definitely not Palin, Trump, Cain, Ron Paul) were "the guy" right now, there'd be plenty of time to attack Obama's vulnerabilities. Daniels doesn't seem to want it so he's still mostly an unknown, Newt and Romney both have baggage, but if one were to take an early lead and the other backed off the attacks and joined forces, you'd see Obama scrambling with a 4 point deficit pretty quickly.





The "B" is for Bargain!

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denverpunk
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posted on 5-16-2011 at 07:47 PM Edit Post Reply With Quote
Trump's out!

http://www.cnn.com/2011/POLITICS/05/16/trump.president/index.html

_______________________________________________________

For once, being a pompous douche actually bit someone in the ass. Watch out for that door, The Donald!

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Paddlefoot
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posted on 5-16-2011 at 07:50 PM Edit Post Reply With Quote
Gingrich has so many really blatant negatives about his personality and history that he'd be unacceptable to the vast majority of non-GOP voters. The ones like Romney and Pawlenty aren't near as bad but they've flip-flopped on their philosophies and records as state governors so much over the last few years, in order to appeal to the GOP base/TeaBirchers, that it'd be hard to trust them to take a stand on anything.

Toss in as an extra the minor fact that most of time the rest of the field comes across as borderline insane. And I do also believe that the GOP are genuinely dumb enough to put Palin or Bachmann on a presidential ticket, thus hammering in the last of the coffin nails. Barring a major scandal, economic disaster, or internal Democrat rebellion, 2012 really has to be seen as President Obama's to lose.

[Edited on 5-16-2011 by Paddlefoot]

[Edited on 5-16-2011 by Paddlefoot]





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williamssl
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posted on 5-16-2011 at 08:02 PM Edit Post Reply With Quote
I'm a conservative and I have no fucking clue who I think should be running or I would want to put up.

It's Obama's to lose, indeed. We've had 2 years to find someone and start to rally behind them or let them actually throw out real ideas and plans. And we haven't. And no, Palin doesn't count. Please lady stay out of this.

Yay...





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BBMN
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posted on 5-16-2011 at 08:36 PM Edit Post Reply With Quote
It seems that there is/was a lot of passion among conservatives, but it's all going in diverging directions and sometimes against itself. The embracing of the Tea Party I think really muddied the waters. They're pretty extreme (and uneducated), and some people on the Right decided to latch onto them (Bachman), and this hurt the whole party. They keep saying that they'll vote against anyone that doesn't measure up to their grand ideal of 'zero comprimise' which is pretty much tarnishes anyone in any party.

I love that Obama is "the worst ever!", yet not a single Republican thinks that they really can beat him in 2012. He's so terrible that he's like popular and will probably win or something.

I do truly feel sorry for moderate republicans though. Your party is fucking itself.

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C.MontgomeryPunk
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posted on 5-16-2011 at 10:07 PM Edit Post Reply With Quote
Obama is not going to have a four point deficit against even the best GOP candidate they could lure in who isn't running - Chris Christie.

Knocking off a sitting President is tough. Hillary Clinton passed on challenging Bush in 2004 because it's a much harder challenge and if you lose you don't get another shot. Christie, Jeb Bush, Mike Pence are all passing - they're desperately trying to lure Mitch Daniels in. Daniels is the Bush CBO who signed off on the Bush Tax cuts while fighting two wars and didn't pay for the Medicare Part D expense, took the war spending off the books to hide the cost and famously predicted Iraq would cost $60B. The Clinton budget surplus left was turned into a $300B Bush deficit in two years under Daniels as the CBO.





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C.MontgomeryPunk
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posted on 5-16-2011 at 10:10 PM Edit Post Reply With Quote
Teabagger passion has all but died away. Just like the Dems were all full of piss and vinegar heading into 2008 - they got their pressure release with the 2008 elections and thought the fight was over and they won. Then the teabaggers were all amped up heading into 2010 and won 60 House seats and 4-5 Senate seats and that was their pressure release button and they've vented and got their "win", and now are not nearly as riled up as they were before.

Actually Dems are more riled up now because of the anti-union stuff the Rustbelt Governors are pulling and the draconian Ryan Budget that wanted to give permanent tax cuts to billionaires off the backs of the middle class and poor.

[Edited on 5-16-2011 by C.MontgomeryPunk]





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Biff_Manly
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posted on 5-19-2011 at 09:43 AM Edit Post Reply With Quote
The right has nothing to run on.

They have no actual fiscal policy besides lower taxes on the rich and cut help for the poor. The won't dare touch Social Security. And they appear to want to bust unions and blame public employees for the budget mess.

As far as the military spending that basically has a blank check on the right and there is no call to cut defense in the least. Hell, Obama might have us at war in Pakistan soon and there is no one on the right who sees anything wrong with that.

Their social agenda basically involves take the right to choose away from a woman, getting in between her and her doctor, deciding who should get to marry who, and making it harder for certain groups of voters to vote. For people who want to keep the government out of peoples lives republicans can't wait to control what people do.

Basically the GOP is only about the elite while throwing the zealots a bone with social issues that rob Americans of their basic freedoms.


On another note though, Obama is pissing me off. The way he has been these past two years and the people he has around him, if you didn't know better you would think he was the GOP candidate. It seems like every speech, every issue, and interview is skewed to appeal to the right. He has totally abandoned any progressive ideals and hasn't taken any stances that will piss them off. This wasn't the person I thought I was voting for.





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denverpunk
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posted on 5-19-2011 at 05:54 PM Edit Post Reply With Quote
quote:
Originally posted by Biff_Manly
On another note though, Obama is pissing me off. The way he has been these past two years and the people he has around him, if you didn't know better you would think he was the GOP candidate. It seems like every speech, every issue, and interview is skewed to appeal to the right. He has totally abandoned any progressive ideals and hasn't taken any stances that will piss them off. This wasn't the person I thought I was voting for.


Fair enough, but I'm not sure if had much of a choice. After making conservatives furious with Obamacare, he had to throw the right a few bones for his own political survival (something Bush never really did in the opposite position, btw). I'd still take him over any current Republican candidate, for the reasons that you've already mentioned.

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posted on 5-19-2011 at 05:59 PM Edit Post Reply With Quote
quote:
Originally posted by denverpunk
Fair enough, but I'm not sure if had much of a choice. After making conservatives furious with Obamacare, he had to throw the right a few bones for his own political survival (something Bush never really did in the opposite position, btw).


Can you elaborate on this? Why does Obama have to tack to the right to get reelected while Bush was able to force through his own agenda with no political repercussions? I know that your statement is the narrative the Obama camp is sticking to, I'm just not convinced that it's true.





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denverpunk
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posted on 5-19-2011 at 08:03 PM Edit Post Reply With Quote
Because the grassroots Republican base is stronger than the Democratic base. Bush had enough unilateral support from his base to get him reelected without conceding anything -- and he almost lost to Kerry anyway, so it came close to backfiring. You could argue that hard line was a huge reason why the Dems thumped the GOP during the 2006 midterms.

On the other hand, Obama doesn't have that luxury. It's easier for Average Joe to lean conservative than liberal. For him to get reelected, he has to be more conciliatory. If Bush almost lost being hard line, then Obama definitely would.

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