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Author: Subject: Wrestlemania Betting Odds are out...
MbahABako
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posted on 3-25-2011 at 02:42 PM Edit Post Reply With Quote
Wrestlemania Betting Odds are out...

Courtesy of the online sportsbook 5dimes:

Edge +145
Alberto Del Rio -185

John Cena -1500
The Miz +700

Undertaker -2750
Triple H +1250

Randy Orton -120
CM Punk -120

Jerry Lawler -6000
Michael Cole +2000

Cody Rhodes -180
Rey Mysterio +140

Trish/Snookie/Morrison -750
Lay-Cool/Ziggler +450

Sheamus -530
Daniel Bryan +350


Initial thoughts:

I lean strongly Del Rio at -185 unless somehow Christian gets involved. I don't see any scenario where Edge wins, not enough value on the plus side for me.

Pass on the Taker match, obviously the easiest play of the night but I'm not about to be laying -2750 any time soon.

There is so much value in the Miz right now its not even funny. With the potential involvement of the Rock being rumored in this match, I could see a situation where Miz prevails with Rock's assistance or as a result of Rock-related shenanigans. A win for Miz in one of the top matches at Wrestlemania against John Cena would really cement his place in the WWE and how much they believe in him. I think his price will go down drastically as we get closer to the event.

Orton/Punk is an interesting match, both guys could use the win, but something tells me Punk is probably going to be doing the job here. Orton has value at -120 and probably up to -180 I'd say in my mind.

Pass on Lawler/Cole, but obvious Lawler is getting to go over here. I don't see how the story progresses if Cole wins unless they absolutely want to make him the most hated heel in a long, long time. The tendency of the face finally getting to beat the heel is always the payoff to the storyline. Or maybe not always, but the vast, vast majority of the time. Still too much juice though. If Lawler got down to -1000 or better I'd throw him in a parlay.

The Rhodes line is smart. I think they are going to get a lot of money in on an underdog Mysterio, although logically Rhodes should go over here to advance his character, which has been fantastic since broke his nose.

Don't care about the women's match.

That Sheamus line is ridiculous as well. I would not at all be surprised if Daniel Bryan gets the win here. Why do you have Sheamus beat Bryan two weeks before the PPV for the US Title unless you want to have Bryan win it right back for a feel good moment in the PPV? If you want to give the title to Sheamus and have him keep it for a while, don't you wait the last two weeks and do it at the PPV?

Interesting potential plays: a Rhodes/Orton parlay? Rhodes/Orton/Del Rio parlay? How about if you are feeling gutsy a Bryan/Miz parlay?

Another reason Miz probably has value and has a legit shot of winning, somewhat along the lines of my thinking for the Sheamus/Bryan match:

Why have Miz unveil a brand new belt (or, looking at it another way, why spend the money as the company to have a new belt designed and made) if you are just gonna have him lose his "new" customized belt in two weeks to Cena?

When Miz had his first promo after winning the title -- on the RAW where HIS image replaced Cena's in the opener -- and he said that he promises that he will be the longest running WWE Champion in recorded history.... I think he will be. He's an old-school, hated champion who could lose to anyone. That's usually good for business and Vince seems to be completely behind him for the exposure Miz brings as well as the work he puts in outside the ring. I think the company really has a lot of faith in him, and a win against Cena (allowing Cena to transition to a Rock feud while Miz moves on to, say, Orton?) will confirm that.

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doctorb
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posted on 3-25-2011 at 02:51 PM Edit Post Reply With Quote
I think was explained in the past but how do you bet on this?

Do you have to actually bet $2750 on Undertaker? What do you get when he wins?

Are they saying Cole/Lawler is an easier call than trips/taker? Or does that big of a number swing not mean what I think it means.

It looks like Rhodes is favored over mysterio, so I figured Mysterio will win simply because I hate him and wanted to bet on that, what would I do?





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MbahABako
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posted on 3-25-2011 at 03:27 PM Edit Post Reply With Quote
doctorb --

What the lines mean is a common question. It's easier to use a match like Edge/Del Rio as an example. Everything is based of a hypothetical 100 dollar bet. With a line like Del Rio -185, that means you would have to risk $185 to win $100. If you liked Edge, you would risk $100 to win $145. The + / - signs indicate the return on your investment basically.

5dimes is sneaky because they cap the amount that can be bet at $50 -- as in, I put down $50 on Miz right when the line came out at +1000 and so I'm risking $50 to win $500 (a fantastic value, if you ask me.) But for someone like, say, Cody Rhodes, 5dimes would only let me risk $90 to win $50. So for favorites they will only let you win up to $50, but for underdogs you can risk up to $50. I'm thinking about throwing down another $50 on Daniel Bryan as well.

Hopefully that helps?

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CreativeInternetAliass
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posted on 3-25-2011 at 03:31 PM Edit Post Reply With Quote
Mbah, they did not design a new belt. Miz still has the Bling Bling spinner belt, they just unlocked the center plate, spun it upside down, and locked it back in place. No money spent, no custom title for Miz.





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MbahABako
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posted on 3-25-2011 at 03:48 PM Edit Post Reply With Quote
quote:
Originally posted by CreativeInternetAliass
Mbah, they did not design a new belt. Miz still has the Bling Bling spinner belt, they just unlocked the center plate, spun it upside down, and locked it back in place. No money spent, no custom title for Miz.


Good point. I guess I kinda missed that in my internal monologue/thinking despite watching the actual unveiling of the title. But even if that's the case, why do you give so much airtime to the unveiling of a "new belt" that doesn't spin and is basically an anti-Cena belt if you are going to have him win the "new belt" two weeks later?

I still kinda think that Miz is going to walk out of Wrestlemania with the title. Or, at least, I think the chances that WWE is gonna book him to walk out of Mania with the title (especially if they don't go on last, as is reported) is somewhere around 40%ish? Anyone think differently?

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theflammablemanimal
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posted on 3-25-2011 at 05:47 PM Edit Post Reply With Quote
They're not going on last? That's crazy. This match should be a bigger deal than del Rio/edge, and HHH/Taker certainly is not big enough to end the show (although if it does, it st least makes it believable that the streak will end).





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MbahABako
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posted on 3-25-2011 at 05:51 PM Edit Post Reply With Quote
quote:
Originally posted by theflammablemanimal
They're not going on last? That's crazy. This match should be a bigger deal than del Rio/edge, and HHH/Taker certainly is not big enough to end the show (although if it does, it st least makes it believable that the streak will end).


From what I've been reading flam, it seems like HHH/Taker is slated to go on last?

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doctorb
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posted on 3-25-2011 at 07:00 PM Edit Post Reply With Quote
That is helpful, thanks.

It seems like there's not ever a reason to bet on the favorite, though? You think Del Rio will win but there's no way to make money on the bet?

And I'd have to bet $50 on mysterio and only come out with $70 if he wins, right?

I'm not much a gambler, it seems like they should handicap them like horses. Cole is 200:1 and Lawler is 9:8. But then there's still a way to make money on a lawler bet so everyone would take it.





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C.MontgomeryPunk
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posted on 3-25-2011 at 07:29 PM Edit Post Reply With Quote
Yeah, but you get your $50 bet back. So you bet $50 and you'd win a $130 payout if Mysterio won.





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posted on 3-25-2011 at 07:38 PM Edit Post Reply With Quote
quote:
Originally posted by MbahABako I don't see any scenario where Edge wins, not enough value on the plus side for me.


Del Rio would seem like the obvious pick, but I'm thinking Edge retains just due to the fact that he's lost at the past four WrestleManias. If Del Rio does win, that's one hell of a losing streak for Edge.

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posted on 3-25-2011 at 10:55 PM Edit Post Reply With Quote
The best underdog pick has to be Miz right now. I wouldn't bet on that one of course...Id stick with the favorites rest of the card.

As a matter of fact -2750 with the UT seems like a steal when compared to King -6000 vs Cole.

Cole or HHH will win but Id bet Cole would win long before I would bet against the Undertaker.

The surest thing on the whole card is UT will win at WM.

Furthermore if I didnt' think Vegas would get into Vince's ear ... you bet the entire house, farm, and anything else you have in your piggy bank on UT.

[Edited on 3-25-2011 by nobledictator]

[Edited on 3-25-2011 by nobledictator]

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MbahABako
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posted on 3-30-2011 at 09:56 PM Edit Post Reply With Quote
FYI the odds have shifted considerably on many matches since my initial post:

Edge +315
Del Rio -455

Miz +157
Cena -200

Taker -1050
HHH +550

Orton -270
Punk +190

Lawler -1580
Cole +750

Mysterio +140
Rhodes -180

Team Snookie -1275
Team LayCool +625

Sheamus -245
Daniel Bryan +175



Really happy that I got Miz at +1000 when it first got released.

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doctorb
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posted on 3-30-2011 at 10:17 PM Edit Post Reply With Quote
Wow, snookie's favored to win by a bigger margin than Taker?

So, do I have this right? Taker at -1050 means if I bet $1050 and Taker wins I get $1150 back? But if I bet $100 on HHH I get $650 back?

How much of this is like the line in football? Does it respond to the betting trends automatically and that's why the big lines are dropping or are bookers watching Raw and adjusting that way?





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MbahABako
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posted on 3-30-2011 at 10:23 PM Edit Post Reply With Quote
quote:
Originally posted by doctorb
Wow, snookie's favored to win by a bigger margin than Taker?

So, do I have this right? Taker at -1050 means if I bet $1050 and Taker wins I get $1150 back? But if I bet $100 on HHH I get $650 back?

How much of this is like the line in football? Does it respond to the betting trends automatically and that's why the big lines are dropping or are bookers watching Raw and adjusting that way?



Your example is 100% correct, Dr. B. Traditionally you'd have to give your bookmaker $1050 to make the bet on Taker, and if you won, you'd bring him your ticket and he'd give you back $1150.

It's not like the normal lines in football because there is no point spread per se as there normally is in football games. You're just picking the straight winner or "moneyline" play in gambling terms.

It tends to respond to the money more than anything else. When they open Miz at +1000 and I immediately try to bet the max, they either manually adjust it or have software that moves the lines down concurrently so that they don't find themselves having a ton of exposure at a high return on one side. That explains why most of the big favorites (Taker, Cena, and Lawler) have come down a lot since their opening numbers.

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SpiNNeR72
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posted on 3-30-2011 at 10:41 PM Edit Post Reply With Quote
Maybe if the site posted proper fractional odds instead of whatever thats suposed to be everyone would know what the odds actually are.

I've been a betting man all my life and have never seen anything like that!


Edit - hold on, google helps as always!

So the actual odds, going by MbahABako's last update are :

Edge v ADR @ 9/4

Cena v Miz @ 7/2

Taker v HHH @ 11/10


Not going to bother with the rest but those are interesting considering it's predetermined.

[Edited on 3-30-2011 by SpiNNeR72]

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posted on 3-31-2011 at 12:06 AM Edit Post Reply With Quote
As I wrote in the other WM thread before I realized this existed...

Rey Mysterio is somehow the underdog in his matchup with Rhodes according to Bodog's new numbers...that has to be the best value there considering how many times Mysterio has come up with the win in every big event of the past 5 years.

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theflammablemanimal
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posted on 3-31-2011 at 01:35 AM Edit Post Reply With Quote
quote:
Originally posted by SpiNNeR72
Maybe if the site posted proper fractional odds instead of whatever thats suposed to be everyone would know what the odds actually are.

I've been a betting man all my life and have never seen anything like that!





Really? That's typical money line stuff. They even use that for football if you don't want to bet the spread.





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TheMakerSaidTaker
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posted on 3-31-2011 at 04:18 AM Edit Post Reply With Quote
You guys are forgetting to subtract the "handle" on the bet.

IE:

On the Undertaker bet... $1050 bet with the book. Undertaker wins, I get back $1050 bet, the $100 win - 5% handle for a final return of $1145.

Sports books make money on every moneyline bet.





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The Immolator
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posted on 3-31-2011 at 10:41 AM Edit Post Reply With Quote
quote:
Originally posted by TheMakerSaidTaker
You guys are forgetting to subtract the "handle" on the bet.

IE:

On the Undertaker bet... $1050 bet with the book. Undertaker wins, I get back $1050 bet, the $100 win - 5% handle for a final return of $1145.

Sports books make money on every moneyline bet.


Please excuse me for jumping in and correcting, I can't help myself - I write about this stuff for a living.

"Handle" is, per the Bodog glossary, the "total amount of money taken by a book on an event." The commission you're talking about is called "juice" or "vigorish," except it's already factored into the odds listed here, since these aren't pointspread bets.

Here's an easy example to work with. One of the lines had both CM Punk and Randy Orton at -120. With either guy, you're risking $120 to win $100. There's the built-in juice for the book. This is standard operating procedure; if you're betting with a book that tacks on an extra 5%, find a different book.

Having said that, you'd really be betting $50 to win $41.67, since there's a $50 maximum bet on these ENTERTAINMENT~! events (although you will find this one at Bodog under "Other Sports").

Also, "-120" is being quoted using American odds. Depending on what part of the world you're in, some books are more likely to post their lines using fractional odds (Punk 5/6) or decimal odds (Orton 1.83).

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SpiNNeR72
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posted on 4-3-2011 at 03:52 PM Edit Post Reply With Quote
Interesting - I had seem decimal odds before but never that other format.

For anyone in the UK thats interested - major betting site William Hill now has HHH v Taker and Cena v Mz up for bets.

Odds are changing by the minute but basically slightly more than evens for Cena and floating around 9/2 for Taker.

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MbahABako
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posted on 4-3-2011 at 08:29 PM Edit Post Reply With Quote
FYI -- here's what I ended up getting down on:

Straight plays:

1. John Cena (-120), 180 to win 150
2. CM Punk (+200), 50 to win 100
3. Miz (+1000), 41 to win 410
4. Daniel Bryan (+350), 40 to win 140

Parlays:

1. Edge/Miz/Punk/Cole/Bryan -- 1 to win 730.43
2. Sheamus/Mysterio/Punk/Taker/Cena/Del Rio -- 10 to win 188.93
3. Bryan/Stratus/Rhodes/Lawler/Punk/Taker/Cena/Del Rio -- 20 to win 655.77
4. Sheamus/Lawler/Orton/Taker/Cena/Del Rio -- 20 to win 87.83

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doctorb
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posted on 4-3-2011 at 09:46 PM Edit Post Reply With Quote
So you put down 221 on Miz Cena, if Cena wins you get back 330 and if miz wins you get 451, right?

That's a nice way to cover, but if Rock wins you lose a weeks worth of groceries.





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doctorb
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posted on 4-5-2011 at 10:49 PM Edit Post Reply With Quote
quote:
Originally posted by MbahABako
FYI -- here's what I ended up getting down on:

Straight plays:

1. John Cena (-120), 180 to win 150
2. CM Punk (+200), 50 to win 100
3. Miz (+1000), 41 to win 410
4. Daniel Bryan (+350), 40 to win 140

Parlays:

1. Edge/Miz/Punk/Cole/Bryan -- 1 to win 730.43
2. Sheamus/Mysterio/Punk/Taker/Cena/Del Rio -- 10 to win 188.93
3. Bryan/Stratus/Rhodes/Lawler/Punk/Taker/Cena/Del Rio -- 20 to win 655.77
4. Sheamus/Lawler/Orton/Taker/Cena/Del Rio -- 20 to win 87.83


I gotta know what happened. Was Cena Miz a no finish?





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