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Author: Subject: MLB Regular Season 2007 Part IV - I'm the unsilent majority, bigmouth.
LuckyLopez
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posted on 8-17-2007 at 06:38 PM Edit Post
You're right, Yanks have an option on Abreu and will likely resign Posada and Mo. I didn't mean to name those guys like "Duh, you missed these guys." More just that they are guys who might hit the market who would make a splash. I don't know that the Yanks will exercise the Abreu option. With Melky playing well, Matsui and Damon signed, Austin Jackson down in AA, and Jose Tabata in A they might just decide that's enough. Matsui LF, Damon CF, Melky RF? Damon LF, Melky CF, Matsui RF? I dunno. There's even a chance they'd consider Shelley Duncan as a 1B/DH/RF off the bench if he keeps hitting well. So I think Abreu could hit the market easily. I know if i knew he wouldn't accept I'd just offer arb and move on. He's a good player but he's shown the tendency to go through prolonged slumps and the Yanks have 3 OFers besides him. Similar to the Sheff deal last year.

Dunn is a better version of Dave Kingman, and what's wrong with that? If Kingman had been better he would have been good. I don't love him but he gives you a .900 OPS and few hitters do. He's too inconsistent and 1 dimensional to build an offense around but if you can bat him 5 or 6 in a good lineup? That's killer.

http://www.baseball-reference.com/friv/scomp.cgi?I=dunnad01:Adam+Dunn&st=age&compage=27&age=27
quote:
Similar Batters through Age 26

Compare Stats

1. Darryl Strawberry (916)
2. Jose Canseco (907)
3. Reggie Jackson (906) *
4. Troy Glaus (898)
5. Tom Brunansky (897)
6. Roger Maris (890)
7. Rocky Colavito (888)
8. Harmon Killebrew (887) *
9. Tony Conigliaro (882)
10. Boog Powell (880)



He ain't a Hall of Famer or anything. But he shouldn't be ignored. That's what I think this class is. Francisco Cabrera. Mike Lowell. Tadahito Iguchi. Russel Branyon. Michael Barrett. Paul Lo Duca. Milton Bradley. Eric Byrnes. Jermaine Dye. Torii Hunter. Corey Patterson. Bartolo Colon. Jason Jennings. Curt Schilling. Randy Wolf. Scott Linebrink. Joe Kennedy. Kerry Wood. Gagne's not listed but he should be out there.

You're right. Jones and arguably Dunn are the only real difference makers available. Abreu and A-Rod if they get free but A-Rod will have a limited list of buyers. But bad projects. They'll probably all end up getting overpaid because of the shallowness of the pool, but still.

Ok, maybe the free agent class sucks. But I think I've lowered expectations. Last year's pool sucked too. Matsuzaka just fleshed it out and people foolishly thought Zito was good. This is what drafts are these days. Occasionally 1 or 2 great options will hit and they'll cost a fortune. But revenue sharing and increased profits means teams can afford to keep their big guns. So the free agent pools get shallow. We'll probably get a couple of Japanese or Latino players added into the mix that will draw a lot of allure.





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chretienbabacool
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posted on 8-17-2007 at 06:48 PM Edit Post
Oh god get Dunn out of our division. He is one of the biggest Cub killers ever.

I think the OF FA class isn't too bad. Andruw Jones will bounce back and be good and Corey Patterson looks like he may have finally found his swing. He's certainly not great or anything, but could be a decent addition to a team in need of a CF.





Go Cubs!

And just imagine if, instead of the Palins, the Obama family had a pregnant, underage daughter on display at their convention, flanked by her black boyfriend who "intends" to marry her. Who among conservatives would have resisted the temptation to speak of "the dysfunction in the black community"?

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posted on 8-17-2007 at 07:53 PM Edit Post
I don't know if A-Rod would even be on the Cubs' list anymore. I don't know if he can go back to SS at this stage in the game. If he could, though, you could have ARam at 3B, A-Rod at SS, Theriot at 2B, and let DeRosa move to RF full time. This would open up the possibility to trade Jacque Jones. Unless the ownership situation gets straightened out soon, however, I don't see the Cubs pursuing him.






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outback jack
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posted on 8-17-2007 at 08:12 PM Edit Post
I like what the Sox are doing today. They're bringing up Buchholz to start the day game (so far he's doing OK), then will send him back to the AAA roster after the game and bring in Ellsbury for the night game.

Cubs fans should be happy. (Well, as happy as Cubs fans can be.) Zambrano may have some faults but pitchers with his talent level are so rarely up for grabs going into what is typically the prime of a baseball player's career.

Edit: I was afraid to jinx him, but Buchholz made a quality start (6 innings, 3 ER) against the Angels. Now he can go back to AAA to work on his 1.4 K per inning stats, while Wily Mo is off to DC to work on his K totals.

[Edited on 8-17-2007 by outback jack]

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posted on 8-17-2007 at 10:54 PM Edit Post
quote:
Originally posted by LuckyLopez
A-Rod? Posada, Mo, and Abreu? Adam Dunn? I don't think its a shitty pool, just one lacking in highly available impact players. Not bad parts though. And a few gems to be had (who will probably get overpaid). Francisco Cabrera will probably somehow end up getting underpaid

[Edited on 8-17-2007 by LuckyLopez]


The home run king is going to be a free agent.
So is Armando Benitez.

Does anyone want to trade for Dave Roberts or Ray Durham..... or Rich Aurilia?





Anyone?
Anyone?



Bueller?





Not a Problem

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Super Grover
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posted on 8-18-2007 at 05:11 AM Edit Post
quote:
Originally posted by DevilSoprano
And Dunn's a better version of Dave Kingman....walk, K, homer. next game.

You say that like it's a bad thing.

40 HRs and a .375+ OBP every year? Yeah, that sucks.

He's one of the best hitters in the league and never gets hurt. And he will continue to be for the next 3-5 years. I'd take that in a heart beat. Especially in Yankee Stadium where he would probably push 50 HRs a year.

I'd throw a boat load at him, if I was running the Yanks. Especially if he wanted to dust off his first baseman's glove.





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posted on 8-18-2007 at 07:16 AM Edit Post
Hey, I never said it was a bad thing. I'm just not sure it's a good thing either. I know he walks alot but, I don't want my 4 or 5 hitter having a .220 average but a .370 OBP just cause he has 200 walks in a season to go along with his 200 strikeouts.

And if it came down to it, I'd take him on the Mets in a heartbeat next season over Green and Delgado(unless it's just injury). But I wouldn't want to base my offense around a guy like Dunn just because he only does 3 things as far as I can tell. I'm not sure what kind of defensive player he is in the outfield or at first and depending on salary, he could be a good pickup...but if he's considered the cream of the free agent class, I just don't think it's a good class.

I really think it may just wind up being a trade-frenzy off season when the time comes. It's kinda weird that alot of the teams that are competing for the playoffs right now have pretty deep minor league systems as well. The Mets have Pelfrey, Humber, Gomez, Milledge, Martinez, etc. The Yanks have Joba, Hughes, Humberto, Tabata, etc. The Red Sox have Hansen, Lester, Ellsbury, Bucholz, etc. The Tigers have Tata, Miller, Maybin, etc. TheAngels, Diamondbacks, and Dodgers have some of the deepest systems in baseball. And all of them will probably consider themselves a piece or 2 away from the next step, so they may wind up considering making a move.

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fsolomon75
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posted on 8-18-2007 at 07:34 AM Edit Post
I think that big move will be Johan. It's pretty obvious he's not going to re-sign with the Twins after '08 and with Z off the market, it'll be interesting to see if Johan is dangled this winter.

The beauty of Dunn on the Mets is that he wouldn't be expected to carry the load, not with Reyes, Beltran and Wright being the main players in that lineup.

[Edited on 8-18-2007 by fsolomon75]





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ThePunisher
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posted on 8-18-2007 at 01:04 PM Edit Post
Still loving/hating that Gagne trade, Red Sox/Yankees fans?






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MoeAU
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posted on 8-18-2007 at 02:41 PM Edit Post
Dunn would fit perfectly into any of the top lineups in the league, Yankees, Mets, Cubs, Angels, Red Sox, Braves, whoever else has the money.


A lot of people don't like Dunn in Cincinnati because he walks when he has guys on base ahead of him and he's supposed to drive in runs. I have always loved him, he plays all the time, he has monster power, he has a great eye (I don't know where to find such a thing, but he has to lead the league in 3-2 counts), and his defense is improving. He will never be great, but he knows his limitations, so he isn't out there diving at everything and scaling the wall. They tried to put him at first before last season and it didn't go so well, so good luck to anyone trying that.


If you put him in the middle of any of those lineups, he would be worth so much. All those times he walks now are followed by David Ross or Alex Gonzalez coming to the plate. If he played for the Angels, he would have some hitters behind him to drive him in.

He's also a .247 lifetime hitter, so he isn't the worst average guy in the league, either.


Marty Brennamen (the Reds radio announcer since 1974) has hated him from day one, so everyone one in Cincy hates him, too. Sure, he strikes out a lot, but do you know how many guys have hit 40 homers four times in their twenties? Six-Aaron, A-Rod, Pujols, Kiner, Foxx and Dunn (with seven more this season).

[Edited on 8-18-2007 by MoeAU]

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posted on 8-18-2007 at 04:57 PM Edit Post
Changing the topic a bit, but this occurred to me when I was on my little road trip. Earl Weaver used to claim that the winning team in a baseball game usually scored as many (or more) runs in one inning as the losing team scored all game. I could probably look this up for proof, but I figured some of our resident stat-heads would be able to find out more quickly if he was correct. So, Lucky and Grover, et al, any takers?





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Super Grover
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posted on 8-18-2007 at 07:35 PM Edit Post
quote:
Originally posted by atothej
Changing the topic a bit, but this occurred to me when I was on my little road trip. Earl Weaver used to claim that the winning team in a baseball game usually scored as many (or more) runs in one inning as the losing team scored all game. I could probably look this up for proof, but I figured some of our resident stat-heads would be able to find out more quickly if he was correct. So, Lucky and Grover, et al, any takers?


I could see Weaver saying something like this but I'm not aware of this quote...any chance we could find the exact quote?

Weaver was before his time (for SABR guys, anyway) because he didn't give up outs for runs. He has happy to not make outs and wait for the 3 run homer. He knew that you only have 27 outs in a game and extending innings is a very good way to score runs. It worked out pretty well for him.

As far as if the quote is true, that would probably take much more time and energy then I would be willing put in. I can't think of a place that would have that data off the top of my head. Short of going through box scores game by game, I'm not sure how else you could check.





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ThePunisher
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posted on 8-18-2007 at 08:43 PM Edit Post
I love it when Jay Mariotti makes an ass of himself:

quote:
So anyone who believes the Cubs sale will be finalized before a deadline far more important than any other -- mid-November, when Carlos Zambrano hits the free-agent market -- also believes in Milli Vanilli and the power of Ronnie Woo Woo. Barring some sort of backroom extension deal that seems impossible under the complex circumstances, you can start sending your gratitudes and goodbyes to Zambrano, who has every right to thumb his nose in disgust at the corporate b.s. and sign with the highest bidder.


And, yes, I realize it seems like I'm just saying this because he is a long term Cub now, but I think Zambrano's thoughts on his deal are pretty refreshing in this day and age. This is from today's article, in the Sun-Times:

quote:
Zambrano and his agent, Barry Praver, repeated that, Zambrano saying he never doubted he would remain a Cub, even when contract talks that were nearly complete in March broke off with Tribune Co.'s opening day announcement it would sell the team.

‘‘Not everything is about money,’’ Zambrano said of ignoring potentially more money in less than two months had he become a free agent. ‘‘I feel comfortable here. This is my team, my city. I love the Cubs. I feel happy right now, but it’s not over. I have a mission to complete and a long way to go with my teammates to lead this team to the promised land [World Series.] That will complete the mission.''


With Zambrano now in the fold, if things don't work out this season (and I still think they will), I still like our chances in 2008.






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LuckyLopez
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posted on 8-18-2007 at 09:10 PM Edit Post
How could they not work out when you only need to be a couple of games over .500 to make the playoffs?

RE: Dunn. I'd pass on him in NY just because we already have him in Giambi (although less healthy and older). Plus Matsui and Damon. And Jeter who's not going to be able to play 1B forever. And A-Rod. The team really doesn't need another DH. And a 1B is a need right now but one of those Matsui, Damon, Jeter guys should probably buy a new glove for Spring Training. Mind you, Giambi's got 1 year on his deal and Matsui/Damon 2 so it woudn't be a long time bottleneck. But I long for some flexibility on this team. If A-Rod stays I'm more than happy playing a Betemit/Duncan/??? platoon at 1B.

RE: Gagne. I'm shocked how bad Gagne has been but I'm not going to celebrate yet. He could easily be in a slump or dealing with a dead arm issue. He was actually struggling a bit in his last days as a Ranger so I don't figure its a "clutch/pressure" thing. I'm not going to presume that he will be unable to recover and help them. And if he doesn't they still have Papelbon/Okajima and its still not a bad trade.

quote:
Originally posted by atothej
Changing the topic a bit, but this occurred to me when I was on my little road trip. Earl Weaver used to claim that the winning team in a baseball game usually scored as many (or more) runs in one inning as the losing team scored all game. I could probably look this up for proof, but I figured some of our resident stat-heads would be able to find out more quickly if he was correct. So, Lucky and Grover, et al, any takers?

I have no idea of the truth of it but it sounds like common sense disguised as sage advice to me. 3-1? He wins. 4-2? Decent chance of the winning team having a 2 R inning. 8-3? Good chance you had a big inning. Runs get scored in bunches when pitchers lose it or there's a HR. To presume that the winning team will do more than score 1 R an inning doesn't seem that outlandish. Seems like you can say "PROBABLY this will happen MOST of the time" and be fine.





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TarheelMike
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posted on 8-19-2007 at 12:55 AM Edit Post
Aren't we due for MLB IV?

And if so, can we have exploding Yankees and Sox batting helmets, Junior Griffey singing Living in America, and a robot for Solly?






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ThePunisher
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posted on 8-19-2007 at 01:57 AM Edit Post
Question: Why is Albert Pujols allowed to put his hands on an umpire when it is supposed to be an automatic ejection? When he was called out at the plate this afternoon, he jumped up and had his hands all over the ump when he was arguing. Kerry Wood gets tossed and 6 games for yelling and Pujols gets nothing.

OMG!!! DOUBLE STANDARD!






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chretienbabacool
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posted on 8-19-2007 at 02:10 AM Edit Post
Yeah, that was a bad call, but there are still rules about these sort of things. Either way, heck of a grand salami and I love Ward. He is such a great addition of the bench.

Although I'm not sure why Lou pulled Marshall after 70 pitches. He gave up the single, but still looked good otherwise. Eh well, Dempster is looking awesome again!





Go Cubs!

And just imagine if, instead of the Palins, the Obama family had a pregnant, underage daughter on display at their convention, flanked by her black boyfriend who "intends" to marry her. Who among conservatives would have resisted the temptation to speak of "the dysfunction in the black community"?

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posted on 8-19-2007 at 02:30 AM Edit Post
quote:
Originally posted by TarheelMike
Aren't we due for MLB IV?

And if so, can we have exploding Yankees and Sox batting helmets, Junior Griffey singing Living in America, and a robot for Solly?
HELL. THE. FUCK. YES.





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LuckyLopez
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posted on 8-19-2007 at 06:59 AM Edit Post
Good enough?

6-3. We should win this series vs the Tigers. Wang vs Bonderman arguably gives us an edge. But we're 2 ahead of the Tigers and 3.5 of the Indians and that's big. Still half a game behind the Ms and 5 behind the Sox but those series are yet to come. We're theoretically putting ground between us and our rivals. That's big. Losing to the O's sucks but beating the better teams is big. And Joba will be available Sunday along with the entire top of the pen. Do it.





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posted on 8-19-2007 at 07:17 AM Edit Post
I could care less what happens, but you all better let Magglio go 4 for 4 with some HRs darn it. The fantasy gods demand it.





Go Cubs!

And just imagine if, instead of the Palins, the Obama family had a pregnant, underage daughter on display at their convention, flanked by her black boyfriend who "intends" to marry her. Who among conservatives would have resisted the temptation to speak of "the dysfunction in the black community"?

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posted on 8-19-2007 at 09:02 AM Edit Post
quote:
Originally posted by DevilSoprano
Hey, I never said it was a bad thing. I'm just not sure it's a good thing either. I know he walks alot but, I don't want my 4 or 5 hitter having a .220 average but a .370 OBP just cause he has 200 walks in a season to go along with his 200 strikeouts.


I guess that's where I'll just agree to disagree. I'm very positive that 40+ bombs a year to go along with a .375+ OBP is a very, very good thing. I do want my 5 hitter to get 200 walks a year. I want all my hitters to get 200 walks a year.

There are maybe 25 guys in the league that have the mix of power and on base percentage that Dunn has. And when you take away the over 30 crowd, the number gets even smaller. He is a pretty rare hitter.

I couldn't care less what kind of outs he makes - strike outs, fly outs, ground outs, whatever. The vast majority of the time, an out is an out. The part Dunn does very well at is the not making outs part. He doesn't make outs at a very high rate. And that's really one of the most important skills a baseball player can have - not making outs. I want 9 not making outs machines in my lineup every game.

I'll take a guy that hits 40 jacks and keeps innings alive any day. I'd take a lineup of 9 Adam Dunn's and the bagillion runs they would score (and all the wins that came along with those runs) any day, as well. And assuming I didn't have a pitching staff of 11 Hideki Irabus, I'd take all the championships that would come along, too.

Lucky: I'd still take Dunn, even with the log jam that the Yanks would have. If they have to trade Damon for 10 cents on the dollar, they are still better off with Dunn in their lineup. I wish they had made a run at him at the trade deadline.

He will be Reggie Jackson before his career is done - without all the drama.





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LuckyLopez
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posted on 8-19-2007 at 09:39 AM Edit Post
If you can work out a Damon trade and it all works out fine, great. I'm working under the presumption that we're stuck with him because we gave him a shit deal and its a CFer's market this year. Mind you we dealt Sheff for a good deal when corner OFers were the market this past year but I have little hope to move Damon. If you can, great. Add Dunn. I wouldn't complain. But right now this team has a glut at OF with Jeter probably headed to 1B sooner or later. I don't want to sign Dunn now and in 3 years have him, Jeter, Posada, and maybe Matsui all ideal for the 1B/DH slots. This team doesn't necessarily need a bat like Dunn's so I rather stick with the flexibility.

Doesn't mean I don't disagree with your other points. I think he'd be a GREAT addition to the Mets, Angels, Red Sox, Tigers, Cubs, and whoever else. He just seems a bit redundant on the Yanks. OBP + power isn't really a mix you can have enough of but the Yanks have quite a bit of it. I wouldn't complain if it happened though.

I'd personally probably just save the payroll room. Cano and Wang are about to cost money and I hope Melky, Hughes, and JOBA will be factors soon. With some luck Jackson, Kennedy, Ohlendorf, Tabata, etc after that. Like I said, if the Yanks said the 2008 1B job was a platoon between Duncan and Betemit I'd live. I'd like to try and grab Nick Johnson on the cheap this winter and there's always some decent 1B platoon options around. I just don't love the idea of spending and losing flexibility for a 1B/DH when we don't really NEED offense.

EDIT: If you can move Damon my whole outlook changes. Abreu can stay, you can sign a guy like Dunn who might move to the OF in 2009 or Jeter might. It just removes a contract and adds flexibility. But I have very little hope for that. If was a bad contract 2 years ago. Its a worse contract now.

EDIT: Am I missing the fanfare on Brandon Webb or is everyone missing this?

code:

Date Opponent Score Dec IP H R ER HR BB K
Aug 17 @ ATL W 4-0 W 9.0 2 0 0 0 1 6
Aug 11 WAS W 1-0 W 9.0 5 0 0 0 1 10
Aug 5 @ LAD W 3-0 W 9.0 7 0 0 0 0 4
Jul 31 @ SDG W 4-0 W 7.0 3 0 0 0 2 7
Jul 25 FLA W 7-0 W 7.0 6 0 0 0 3 8



That's 42 scoreless innings (1 scoreless inning to end his last game before the run). Still 17 short of Hershisher but in this era? Christ that's insane. Webb is on a sick run and am I just missing the coverage?

I mean, 5 straight scoreless outings and 3 straight complete game shutouts? Can we just give him the Cy Young please?

[Edited on 8-19-2007 by LuckyLopez]





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fsolomon75
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posted on 8-19-2007 at 04:53 PM Edit Post
quote:
Originally posted by LuckyLopez
Webb is on a sick run and am I just missing the coverage?
No one's paid attention to the DBacks since Gonzo's bloop over The Captain. Would you believe the Devil Rays have had more sellouts this year? Way to support a first place team, Arizona.
quote:
Can we just give him the Cy Young please?
Webb, Peavy, Penny would be my top 3 right now.





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chretienbabacool
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posted on 8-19-2007 at 05:58 PM Edit Post
Is Young being left out because of the injury? Because he has a 1.93 ERA, a 0.99 WHIP and a .181 BA against. Those are some pretty insane #s and better then anyone else in the NL.





Go Cubs!

And just imagine if, instead of the Palins, the Obama family had a pregnant, underage daughter on display at their convention, flanked by her black boyfriend who "intends" to marry her. Who among conservatives would have resisted the temptation to speak of "the dysfunction in the black community"?

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Mood: WILLIE~!

posted on 8-19-2007 at 06:16 PM Edit Post
His low win total will hurt his chances, otherwise he's right up there with Webb.





Teh wisdom of MooseheadJack: "tpyos are not going to ruin my day today" and "the only thing carved in stone for the Mets is the look on willie's face"

The 2007 Post Of The Year

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